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Battle for allies : BJP has an edge over Congress |
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B.I. Saini
With growing realisation among the national parties that victory or defeat in the next year’s Lok Sabha elections may depend on forging the right tie-ups at the state level, both the Congress and the BJP appear to be getting down to the task in right earnest. Being a motivated and cadre-based party(backed by the RSS cadre), the BJP is the first off the mark, with its top leaders including the party’s prime ministerial aspirant Lal Krishan Advani giving a clarion call for expanding and strengthening the National Democratic Alliance, NDA, which the party heads. But the Congress is not far behind, considering its overtures to Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party.
The Congress options are, however, limited. In most states, the party is either in a direct fight with the BJP, or engaged in a fight to the finish with the dominant regional party, which leaves little scope for a tie-up with other parties. But there are a few states, where forging an alliance with one of the regional outfits can yield good dividends for the Congress. The most crucial state in this respect is the country’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha. The Congress first tried to come closer to Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, with the central government going slow on the cases against the BSP supremo. But the prospects of the Congress and the BSP coming closer vanished, with the BSP gaining a majority in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly on its own, and Mayawati making it clear subsequently that her party will not have an alliance with any party. More pertinently, she said that she herself would like to make a bid for the Prime Minister’s position, sooner rather than later. After the snub from Mayawati, the Congress has been trying to rebuild bridges with the Samajwadi Party. An alliance between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party would benefit both parties, but it is not clear yet if Mulayam Singh Yadav would be able to abandon the hostility towards the Congress, and especially its president, Sonia Gandhi.
Another crucial state for the Congress is West Bengal, where there are prospects of loosening of the Left parties’ stranglehold after almost 30 years, because of the Singur and Nandigram developments. An alliance between Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamul Congress and the Congress has the potential of check-mating the Left, but the Congress appears to have frittered away the opportunity by not accommodating Mamata Banerjee during the recent Rajya Sabha elections. The two parties may still forge a tie-up for the Lok Sabha elections, but the prospects do not appear to be very bright.
In the south, the Congress may have to take a call on whether to continue the alliance with Karunanidhi’s DMK, or to build bridges again with Jayalalithaa’s All India Anna DMK.
The BJP, unencumbered by ideology while forging electoral tie-ups, is in a better position on the issue of attracting more allies. In several states, the party is not a force to reckon with, and would be happy with whatever crumbs are thrown to it by the dominant regional party, with which it can build a partnership. As the BJP’s main objective is to regain power at the Centre, the party would not shy away from making sacrifices at the state level. The BJP has options available to it in almost all states, including West Bengal(tie-up with Mamata), Uttar Pradesh(tie-up with Mayawati?), Andhra Pradesh(tie-up with Telugu Desam). The party has already stable relationships with dominant regional players in Punjab, Maharashtra and Orissa.
The Congress can turn the tables on the BJP if the party realises the erosion in its position in several states, and does not shy away from aggressively wooing even regional parties at present aligned with the BJP, like the Janata Dal(United) in Bihar and the Biju Janata Dal in Orissa. The Congress also has to find some way, and quickly at that, of revitalising the organisational set-up, and curbing dissidence, while not throttling inner party democracy.
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