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Call the Left bluff or go under |
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B.I. Saini
With the Left parties, especially their most powerful leader, CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat, adamant on not allowing the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government to go ahead with the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal, the Congress faces the prospect of either going in for early general elections or losing whatever credibility the party has. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh appears to have made it clear to Congress president and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi that dumping the nuclear deal at this stage will erode the country’s credibility internationally and also hit the search for energy sources to overcome the shortage of crude oil.
By all accounts, the nuclear deal negotiated by the Manmohan Singh Government with the Bush Administration in Washington is the best the country could have got in the prevailing circumstances. The United States has already made it clear that the BJP which headed the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government till 2004, was prepared to accept even a less favourable deal than the one negotiated by the UPA. Of course, the BJP now says that while it is not opposed to entering into a deal on nuclear energy with the United States, it wants the country to be allowed to retain the option of going in for atomic tests, if required. To that, the UPA says that the option is available even now, but naturally, whichever government takes such a decision, will have to accept the consequences which may follow.
Despite the realisation in certain quarters close to the BJP, such as former National Security Advisor Brijesh Mishra, that the deal is the best which could be expected by India, the BJP says that it will join the Left in ensuring that the Government does not go ahead with the deal. The BJP thinking is that if the UPA government collapses, and general elections ensue, it will be good for the party prospects at a time when inflation is at a 13 year high and the common man is bearing the brunt of the price rise.
While Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is all for going ahead with the nuclear deal despite the Left threat of pulling the rug from under the feet of his government, UPA allies and even sections in the Congress, even though favouring the deal, are not happy at the prospect of a mid-term poll. The attitude of some of the important UPA allies such as Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi’s DMK is understandable, as there is very little hope of their repeating the almost complete wiping out of the NDA in Bihar and Tamil Nadu achieved during the 2004 Lok Sabha polls. Some erosion, which may be substantial in Bihar especially, in their support base and performance in future elections appears likely. After the next Lok Sabha elections, held either this year or by the normally scheduled May 2009 deadline, their leverage at the national level is likely to be eroded. They would like to postpone the day of reckoning as far as they can.
The Congress on its part would have expected to fare better in the elections if it had taken the plunge last year when the Left parties had vehemently opposed the 123 agreement entered into with the United States. Even now, the party could salvage some of its losses if it acts decisively and calls the Left’s bluff. It is clear that whether the Congress or the BJP come up on top during the next Lok Sabha elections, the Left parties would not be able to repeat their 2004 performance when they won about 60 seats in the Lok Sabha. Facing a substantial erosion in their support base in West Bengal because of mishandling of the Singur and Nandigram land acquisition issue, their tally can only go down.
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