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Indo-US N-deal: NSG meet on waiver inconclusive |
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With a small group of countries holding the Indo-US nuclear deal hostage to their non-proliferation concerns, a crucial two-day meeting of the Nuclear Suppliers Group [NSG] to grant waiver to India to engage in nuclear trade ended inconclusively in Vienna on August 22. It is expected to hold another session on Sept. 4-5 to resume discussions on the issue and Indian and US officials are confident that the waiver would come at this meeting. The US Under Secretary of State for Non-Proliferation, John D. Rood, who led the American delegation at the NSG meeting, said Washington continues to believe it is a very important initiative and “we remain committed to achieving an outcome that is both a net benefit for the non-r\proliferation regime and meets India’s energy needs”.
The draft of the waiver, circulated by the US a day earlier on Aug 21 at the NSG meeting, was not acceptable to some countries which suggested certain amendments, though they did not oppose exception to India to join the international community in civilian nuclear commerce. India and the US are now likely to finetune the text of the draft which may be acceptable to those countries which have opposed the waiver without conditions.
According to Indian sources, a few countries like New Zealand, Switzerland, Austria, Norway and the Netherlands again raised concerns over granting exemption to India without any conditions. Sources said the clamour for “conditions” and “amendments” to the NSG draft waiver had been whittled down to three demands. None of these are acceptable to India but these have the greatest resonance among the greatest number of NSG members.
First, many countries are pushing for “testing” clause, that all nuclear cooperation with India should cease automatically if New Delhi tests another nuclear weapon. Second, they are pushing for a periodic review of the India case to be tested against the unspecified benchmarks. Third, they are clearly unwilling to relax the bar against transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technology to India. However, none of these countries was against the waiver to bring India back into the nuclear mainstream.
Those who strongly backed adoption of the text included the Czech Republic, Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine. A second group of “like-minded countries” said they wished to be “constructive” but wanted some additions and conditions included in the text. Among these were Austria, Ireland and New Zealand. Switzerland too expressed concern as did the Nordic group. The third group consisted of those who came out in favour of the proposal but who did not appear overly enthusiastic. This group, according to diplomats, included Germany and Japan as well as Canada and Australia. Officials said New Zealand has been the most vocal country in opposing the NSG waiver on the contention that New Delhi has not signed the NPT. “One can understand New Zealand’s tough position since the country is soon going to the polls”, an official said. He said, despite good relations with India, it will be difficult for Wellington to give its nod without its concerns being met first because non-proliferation is a big deal politically down there and the country is due for elections in November. New Zealand is equally unique. Despite having a military alliance with the US, it does not allow American warships in its waters because the US refuses to specify which one is carrying nuclear weapon.
Then there is Austria, which is refusing to discuss the deal. Austria has no love lost for nuclear energy and is an ayatollah into the bargain. The Netherlands is in the middle of vacations and a strong socialist essence in their Parliament is making things difficult for them. The Irish Government is also not pleased at all and after they thumbed their noses at the EU Treaty, anything can happen.
On the positive side, France has put its weight behind India and issued demarches to all members asking them to allow the exemption for India to pass by consensus. The French diplomatic muscle within Europe may be formidable, but sources point out that other key countries like Germany and the Netherlands too are under pressure to achieve an “acceptable compromise.”
This apart, China has still not revealed its hand. It is known that China had in the past attempted to push a proposal for criteria-based exemption for non-NPT countries. The argument was to give exemption to any of the countries that meets these criteria. But, with that proposal not making much headway, both India and US will keenly watch the way Beijing responds at the NSG meet.
There was, however, nothing unusual. Every country’s position was well known. But, the question is to what extent India and the US will be ready to amend the draft to meet the objection of nay-sayers.
India and the US are pushing Germany, the NSG chairperson, to incorporate the “concerns” of NSG members or “conditions” in the Chairman’s statement which makes it non-binding, but reflects the sentiments of the group. However, that has not been decided yet. India is also pushing very hard for lifting of the bar on ENR technology, but here it has no supporters, not even the US, which has the most stringent laws on this in the world, and would not like to be pushing this openly in violation of its domestic laws. India is also against the “periodic review” conditions – but here some flexibility could be shown, said sources.
Keen on unconditional nod from the NSG for conducting civil nuclear trade, the Indian team in its separate meetings in Vienna, sought to allay apprehensions over the waiver after three countries raised questions. The Indian team led by Foreign Secretary Shiv Shanker Menon accompanied by Prime Minister’s Special Envoy Shyam Saran and D.B. Venkatesh Varma from the Indian Disarmament Mission in Geneva, is camping in Vienna, holding discussions with the NSG member countries and trying to win support. They expressed guarded optimism about the Indo-US nuclear deal securing NSG nod.
After the first session of the NSG meeting on Aug 21, they held a special briefing for all the NSG countries conveying India’s commitments towards non-proliferation and seeking to allay fears that some members have. They met the NSG chair, Germany, followed by a meeting with the NSG “troika”, i.e. past, present and future chair – Germany, South Africa and Hungary. In line with India’s decision to avoid sitting or otherwise addressing the NSG plenary, Menon held a separate briefing for other NSG members before the meeting. They made it clear to the NSG countries that New Delhi would not accept any radical changes in the US draft for getting clean exemption from the 45-strong NSG for undertaking nuclear commerce. Responding to questions by New Zealand and Switzerland why India should be granted the waiver especially when it was not a signatory of the NPT, Menon sought to allay the apprehensions citing New Delhi’s “impeccable” track record on the non-proliferation front despite not having signed the treaty. Insisting that the initiative will not weaken the non-proliferation system as feared by some, the Indian officials are believed to have pointed out to the NSG members that India has in place a strict export control regime besides other measures to guard against transfer of dual-use technology or nuclear fuel to ineligible entities.
The US in the meanwhile, is using its clout to prevail on the opposing countries to give up their reservations and support a consensus in favour of the waiver for India. US Ambassador to India David C. Mulford is also said to be in Vienna, lobbying with the NSG members. He is understood to have stated that a consensus on waiver would eventually come but it would not be that easy. The US Assistant Secretary of State, Richard Boucher, on a visit to Mumbai said on Aug 22, there may be some changes in the draft but only if India and US agree.
It is notable that the Indo-US nuclear deal has already been given the green light by the IAEA which approved a special safeguard agreement with India. But the deal must now also clear the NSG hurdle before it is voted upon in the US Congress for its operationalisation. The NSG step is more complex than the other two successful steps on the way : the US-India 123 agreement and the India-specific IAEA safeguards agreement. The former required direct negotiations between the two countries and in the latter, the IAEA’s aim was quite specific and bounded – to devise a system to safeguard supplied materials from being diverted for nuclear explosion purposes. Moreover, although in the case of IAEA, the final draft was approved by consensus, if there had been some opposition and voting had taken place, it would have required only a majority to carry through the agreement. The NSG decision is qualitatively different in a number of respects. India is not a member of the NSG and has no voting rights there. And in the NSG, since decisions are taken by consensus, there is a requirement that no member oppose the draft, even though all may not agree fully with all elements in the text. NSG members are already being pressured by various opponents of the deal, both internal and external, to either reject the draft or amend it with significant changes which will render its operation untenable.
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